Turning unexpected discoveries into strategic advantage.
Two scientists witness the same surprising result. One dismisses it as irrelevant. The other investigates, eventually discovering the treatment for a debilitating disease.
What made the difference? Serendipity.
The unexpected
Recent research by Deryck Van Rensburg (Journal of Business Strategy, 2024) reveals that only 45% of organisational performance can be attributed to traditional strategic factors. Much of the remaining 55% may come from how well companies recognise and act on unexpected opportunities.
Serendipity ≠ Luck
Luck is passive; it's an unexpected windfall that happens to you. Serendipity requires preparation and action and occurs when organisations recognise unexpected discoveries and invest resources to turn them into breakthroughs.
Identity Alignment
The Visual Identity Leadership Scale (VILS) utilises overlapping circles to assess the degree to which leader behaviours align with team identity (Steffens et al., 2024).
The Prepared Organisation
Van Rensburg identifies six capabilities that help organisations capture serendipitous value:
Deep domain expertise to recognise unexpected connections
Anticipatory mindset that embraces anomalies rather than dismissing them
Noticing ability to spot weak signals others miss
Abductive reasoning to reframe surprises as opportunities
Persistent elaboration to turn insights into results
Fluid relationships that increase exposure to diverse ideas
Language Patterns
Analysis of team communication for collective identity markers such as how often people say "we" versus "I," and whether shared values appear naturally in conversations rather than just formal presentations (van Dick et al., 2018).
Building Serendipity Capabilities
Organisations can develop these capabilities by creating cross-functional exposure, building deep expertise, encouraging experimentation with “adjacent possible” ideas, and rewarding those who investigate promising anomalies, even when they diverge from original plans.
Van Rensburg, D.J. (2024). “The prepared firm: serendipity, strategy and the unexpected.” Journal of Business Strategy, Vol. 45 No. 5.
Behavioural Consistency
Observation of whether actual decision-making processes reflect stated values, particularly during stress or conflict when true priorities become visible (Steffens et al., 2014).
Cultural Stability
Longitudinal tracking of cultural norms including persistence during transitions, challenges, and growth phases rather than fragmenting under pressure (van Dick et al., 2021).
Measurement Frequency
Studies across multiple countries demonstrate that brief, frequent assessments are more effective than annual comprehensive reviews for maintaining alignment (Matthews et al., 2022). Why? Because identity leadership requires constant calibration between approach and team needs. With this real real-time adjustment organisations are reporting improved leadership development outcomes and more effective succession planning (van Dick et al., 2018, 2021).
Matthews, R. A., et al. (2022). Journal of Business and Psychology, 37, 639-673.
Steffens, N. K., et al. (2014). The Leadership Quarterly, 25(5), 1001-1024.
Steffens, N. K., et al. (2024). British Journal of Social Psychology, 63, 1658-1680.
van Dick, R., et al. (2018). Journal of Occupational and Organisational Psychology, 91(4), 697-728.
van Dick, R., et al. (2021). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(22), 12081.
