Insight       22 May 2025

Randomness in Project Management

One key area to consider when examining the psychology of project management is how people manage uncertainty. Projects are, by definition, unique and, therefore, riskier and more uncertain than business as usual. Yet, we can sometimes assume higher-than-predictable levels of control or fail to adapt our approach and methods.

How Cognitive Biases Distort Project Planning and Evaluation

Consider the “planning fallacy,” where we consistently underestimate the time, costs, and resources needed to complete future tasks, even when our experience suggests otherwise. 
Or “attribution errors” where we tend to underemphasise situational and environmental factors and overemphasise individual or personality factors, leading to a misjudgement about the factors contributing to project success. 

How Cognitive Biases Distort Project Planning and Evaluation

Consider the “planning fallacy,” where we consistently underestimate the time, costs, and resources needed to complete future tasks, even when our experience suggests otherwise. 
Or “attribution errors” where we tend to underemphasise situational and environmental factors and overemphasise individual or personality factors, leading to a misjudgement about the factors contributing to project success. 

How to Manage Randomness

To manage the randomness or under certainty of projects and the potential impacts of our psychological biases, consider: 
  • Establishing structured processes for gathering realistic estimates without social pressure

  • Implementing formal reference class forecasting methodologies and being clear on planning assumptions 

  • Conducting novelty assessments to consider how far removed the project is from what has been done before, allocating budget to unknowns to enable studying and management 

  • Conducting scenario planning exercises and identifying ‘tripwires’ that need a response once the unknown unknown has emerged 

  • Converting the unknown unknowns into known unknowns through systematic processes that then allow for conventional risk management 

  • Developing probability-based timeline frameworks rather than fixed milestone dates
     
  • Incorporating adaptive management principles to navigate ambiguity 

  • Instituting objective post-project assessment protocols to evaluate success drivers and enable the maturing of project management capabilities

  • Designing integrated transitions between project and operations from the start through job rotations and integrated project teams to enable the randomness of the operational environment to influence project thinking.

How to Manage Randomness

To manage the randomness or under certainty of projects and the potential impacts of our psychological biases, consider: 
  • Establishing structured processes for gathering realistic estimates without social pressure
  • Implementing formal reference class forecasting methodologies and being clear on planning assumptions
  • Conducting novelty assessments to consider how far removed the project is from what has been done before, allocating budget to unknowns to enable studying and management
  • Conducting scenario planning exercises and identifying ‘tripwires’ that need a response once the unknown unknown has emerged
  • Converting the unknown unknowns into known unknowns through systematic processes that then allow for conventional risk management
  • Developing probability-based timeline frameworks rather than fixed milestone dates
  • Incorporating adaptive management principles to navigate ambiguity
  • Instituting objective post-project assessment protocols to evaluate success drivers and enable the maturing of project management capabilities
  • Designing integrated transitions between project and operations from the start through job rotations and integrated project teams to enable the randomness of the operational environment to influence project thinking.

Further Reading